Let It Snow: Mild Winter Challenges EUP Businesses
Events Planners Making Back-up Plans; Wildlife Enjoying Respite From Cold
By Ryan Schlehuber

Gary Reid, owner of Bradford's Service in Moran, throws up his hands in a gesture of frustration over the lack of significant snowfall Monday, January 8. Only a light layer is found around the rental snowmobiles in front of his store, and grass is still visible beneath the dormant vehicles. The lack of snowfall has been particularly bad for Bradford's, he said, which is close to popular snowmobile trails. His business relies on winter tourism, especially between Christmas and New Year's Day. The unseasonable conditions are hurting the economy of the entire area, and "everyone from community leaders to hourly employees understands that," he said.

Jim Keysor knows this winter is a little unusual. The sight of green grass everywhere is an indicator, but seeing people barbecuing exemplifies just how unusual this winter is to him.

Meteorologists like Mr. Keysor, who works at the National Weather Service in Gaylord, are getting the same question from many people.

"Everyone wants to know the same thing," he said. "Are we going to get snow? Right now, it's a tough call."

The Eastern Upper Peninsula (EUP) received snow in early December, but warm air and rain eliminated it before Christmas.

A group of idle snowmobiles sits on the lawn in bright sunshine as late in the season as Sunday afternoon, January 7, at Cedarville Inn in Cedarville. The rental vehicles were set out late last year, when a week of heavy snowfalls in December looked promising for the local snowmobile season. All of the snow melted or was washed away by rains, and it will take awhile to rebuild the trail base, even though the weather seemed to turn a corner Monday, January 8.

As of Monday, January 8, snowmobilers, ice fishermen, and skiers have had to travel to Munising and beyond before seeing any snow. Meteorologists said it was those areas west of here where four to 10 inches could be found away from the lake shore.

Colder temperatures and some snow moved into the area Monday. Awarm front is expected to follow, but Mr. Keysor said there are positive signs that arctic air could push through by February.

"Certainly, these months are some of the warmest ones in the last 100 years," said Mr. Keysor.

Last January was the secondwarmest January for Sault Ste. Marie since the National Weather Service began keeping statistics for that area since 1931. This January may top the list, said Mr. Keysor.

"The best-case scenario I see is that we might have six weeks of decent winter where we can actually snowmobile," said Mr. Keysor, "But we're at the half-way point of winter already."

The mild winter is being caused by an El Niño, an abnormal warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean that is holding back the cold air from Canada that normally sweeps into the upper Midwest during the winter.

At the end of 2006 and beginning of 2007, the jet stream was pushed over Canada, where colder air has been "bottled up," as Mr. Keysor described it. With cold air suspended over Canada, the lower states have languished in abnormally warm temperatures for January. Temperatures in the EUP reached the mid-40s last week, and Mr. Keysor said December 2006 ranked among the top five warmest Decembers in the past 75 years. The record-setting temperature in Sault Ste. Maire was 45 degrees in 1998, while 2006's 43.9 degrees tied for second place with 2001. In 1987, the temperature reached 43.5, and 1931 the temperature was 44.3.

Mr. Keysor said Monday, January 8, the jet stream has now changed its pattern, and for a few weeks at least, the area should see colder temperatures and more snow.

"For all those who like snow and cold, we should be seeing some of that now," he predicted. "With the lakes as open as they are, we should see several rounds of lake effect snow over the next few weeks."

Mild Winter Tests

Area Business Owners

The mild winter has affected Eastern Upper Peninsula businesses, winter events, and wildlife.

The average snowmobiler in Michigan spends $4,128 annually on equipment and travel, according to the International Snowmobile Manufacturers Association. With 290,000 snowmobiles registered in the state, that could add up to more than $1 billion in Michigan.

This winter is testing even the most frugal business owner.

Eighty-five percent of winter business for Karene Kerversky's Cut River Inn in Naubinway is from snowmobilers. She said her business benefits from snowmobilers even if there is no snow in Naubinway because she attracts snowmobilers on their way to where the snow is.

But this year, she said, "There just isn't any or enough snow in the U.P."

Like many businesses, Cut River Inn has been forced to cut back on hours and staff.

"We usually will have 12 people on staff at this time of the winter," Mrs. Kerversky said. "Right now, we have two."

The Cedar Pantry in Cedarville would typically be loaded with snowmobilers by now, since it is right across the street from a popular snowmobile trail.

"We'd have a lot of out-of-towners right now, but business is just poor," said Pantry employee Bette Nye.

Dave Swope of Budget Host Inn at St. Ignace remembers the area suffering through a similar predicament during the winter of 2001, when the EUP did not receive snow until February.

"Our occupancy rate in January 2001 was 16.04 percent," said Mr. Swope. "We typically would be in the high 30s to 40s."

In 2001, however, February turned out plenty of snow for businesses to rebound, at least somewhat, remembers Mr. Swope, who said another winter like this may force businesses to make drastic changes, with some considering closing for good.

"If we don't get snow this year, it's going to be bad for a lot of businesses," he said. "With the state economy like it is, having no snow is like a double-whammy for local businesses. There just isn't another loop in the belt for businesses to tighten."

Mr. Swope, who is president of the St. Ignace Visitors Bureau, is still hoping for the best for February.

"Ty p i c a l l y, that is our strongest winter month," he said. "We're not rolling up the floor mats yet, but if this becomes a trend, we won't be the only ones seeing the end of the line."

Local dealerships that sell or rent snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) have reported that ATVs have caught up in sales with snowmobiles, however, business is slow, overall.

"We're doing a lot of things around here that we've been putting off for awhile, only because we're so slow," said Dave Masse of Cedarville Marine. "ATVs are becoming more popular now that people can equip them with snowplows and track systems for driving in the snow, but business right now absolutely stinks."

Mike Soder of Curtis Fish and Hunt Shop said ATV sales have risen in the last couple of years owing to lack of snow for snowmobiles. The ratio of ATV sales to snowmobile sales downstate is near four-to-one but only about two-to-one in the U.P. because there are more "diehard snowmobilers" in the U.P., said Mr. Soder.

The Fish and Hunt Shop, where rentals of snowmobiles and boats are a big part of its business, has used the Internet to expand, with some success.

"We're reaching out further Midwest and south," he said. "But this mild winter affects everybody. I don't care what business you're in. It has slowed down everyone." Winter Event Planners Making

Back-up Plans

It has also forced the Soo Area Sportsman's Club, hosts of the annual Walleye Jamboree near Pickford, to move the event from January into February. Carley Ball, one of the coordinators said the event, held on Munuscong Bay near the St. Marys River, is rescheduled for February 21 to February 25.

The popular International 500 snowmobile race in Sault Ste. Marie, scheduled for February 3, could be canceled or moved to March, said Jan Bailey, the event's coordinator.

"We didn't put water down on the track until January 14 last year, so we're not that far off, but we don't have any snow that the city can bring in," she said. "We'll have to make a decision by January 22 or 23 as to whether we cancel it or reschedule it for March 10."

She said March 10 would be the earliest reschedule date because the big snowmobile racing circuit dates this winter already are filled.

"We're still thinking positive," she said.

Cedarville's annual Snowsfest will go on as planned, said event coordinator Dana Torsky. The event, to be held February 16 to 18, will have some changes, however.

The tent that holds a dog show and chili cook-off each year will probably be set up at the township park next to Cedarville Bay instead at its traditional location on the frozen lake. Mrs. Torsky said the high school will probably house the event's craft show.

"There was a lot of talk that Snowsfest was going to be canceled," she said, "but we're going to hold the event, no matter what."

The annual Curtis Winter Carnival Saturday, February 17, will most likely be relocated off the frozen lake onto the mainland, said event coordinator Sue Fleischmann. She said the event's popular fishing contest will probably be moved to nearby Portage Creek.

"We will have some kind of carnival," she said, "but this winter is ridiculous. Our family has three rental cabins, and right now, they're just sitting there empty."

Mark Sposito is already designing an alternative plan for a pond hockey tournament, scheduled for Moran Bay in St. Ignace February 24 and 25. He expects to bring in 96 six-man teams.

In case Moran Bay does not produce good ice, the event could be moved to Chain Lake on Cheeseman Road or, if need be, to a frozen parking lot.

Mr. Swope said Moran Bay's shoreline has never not had ice during the winter, however, he said, this year may be the first time it does not freeze.

"We're still hoping for snow," said Mr. Sposito. "We still have some time before the event."

A broom ball tournament scheduled for Saturday, January 20, at the Driftwood Bar in St. Ignace will continue with or without snow, just as long as teams show up.

Warm Winter and Wildlife

For most of the EUP's wildlife, the stress of winter will be minimal, said Rex Ainslie, a wildlife biologist for the Michigan Department of Natural Resources in Newberry.

Deer, he said, will fare pretty well, as will predators like coyotes and wolves.

"If the winter continues like it has, you'll probably see a high survival rate for fawns and a high production rate for does in the spring," he said.

Black bear, and small-game animals like snowshoe hare and grouse, however, are more likely to struggle in a mild-climate winter, he said.

"Snowshoe hare are highly vulnerable because there is no snow for their white coats to blend in with, which is resulting in a high success rate for both predators and hunters," said Mr. Ainslie. "Grouse are struggling too, because they bury themselves in snow to protect themselves from predators and to preserve heat."

The warmer temperatures may also interrupt hibernation for black bears, which would increase energy demands and force them to burn fat reserves which otherwise would allow them to rest throughout the winter months, said Mr. Ainslie.