Michigan Politics
Drawn Republican, 1st District Has Turned Democratic
By George Weeks

When the GOP-ruled Legislature remapped the sprawling district of U.S. Representative Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) to create a Republican tilt after the 2000 Census, it knew there was little chance of defeating the popular Stupak, who had just won a fifth term with 58 percent of the vote.

Although the revamped district, including all 15 Upper Peninsula counties (as it did previously) and 16 below the bridge, was calculated to have a 53.6 percent Republican base, Democrat Stupak won with 68 percent in 2002 and has continued to coast.

But the GOP figured it would have a good shot at the seat when vacated by Stupak, who subsequently was mentioned as a potential 2002 running mate for Governor Jennifer Granholm and gets cited by Lansing crystal ball gazers as maybe a gubernatorial candidate himself in 2010.

Now, the latest Inside Michigan Politics (IMP) newsletter said in a surprising report, "the 1st is marginally Democratic at 50.7%, meaning that if Stupak should vacate the territory between now and 2010, the likelihood that the GOP could take advantage of the vacancy in an open seat race has been dramatically reduced."

In fact, according to IMP, the composite partisan vote over the past three elections has grown in 13 of Michigan's 15 U.S. House districts during the last six years and "reveals a gradually rising tide of Democratic hegemony in the state, just as it did for the state Senate and House of Representatives."

As for Up North's two Republican congressmen: 2nd District Representative Peter Hoekstra of Holland at 38.6% has the least Democratic base in Michigan, and 4th District Representative Dave Camp of Midland has a 45.7% Democratic base. Five of Michigan's nine Republican U.S. representatives have larger district Democratic bases than Camp.

Nine-term Camp and eightterm Hoekstra in the past have flirted with running for the U.S. Senate, but are not about to give up safe seats and their Capitol Hill seniority for a 2008 challenge of Senator Carl Levin, Michigan's longest-serving senator.

Party "base" figures in each district are calculated by IMP from data collected by East Lansingbased Practical Political Consulting, Inc., and the Secretary of State's Elections Division following the last four general election votes for the State Board of Education, and governing boards of Wayne State University, University of Michigan, and Michigan State University.

IMP says election analysts consider the four education boards elected on a statewide ballot "to be the most nearly foolproof yardstick for calculating a political party's base strength in a given election, because they're so far down the bedsheet that a voter is likely to fall back on his or her fundamental partisan leanings in deciding whom to support."

The newsletter acknowledges that results of education board elections can be swayed by other factors, such as a candidate with a high name ID or a landslide winner atop the ticket for president or governor.

For these reasons, I have been skeptical of the party base calculations in a given year. But this latest published blending of results over a four-election span provides a good glimpse of party strengths as the spear carriers on each side gear for the next election.

Beyond the 2008 election, note that all of northern Michigan's state senators will be term-limited in 2010.

It could be that Democrat Michael Prusi of Ishpeming, and Republicans Jason Allen of Traverse City, Michelle McManus of Lake Leelanau, and Tony Stamas of Midland will be taking a close look at the latest party base figures in congressional districts if incumbents of their parties decide to move on.

George Weeks retired last year after 22 years as political columnist for The Detroit News. His weekly Michigan Politics column is syndicated by Superior Features.