By Ellen Paquin

While Straits area residents are keeping an eye on their pocketbooks in view of recent fare increases at the Mackinac Bridge, the biggest concern for the Mackinac Bridge Authority is long term forecasts that predict traffic levels spiraling

further downward. Bridge crossings are the only source of revenue

to fund a $40 million painting project and a $190 million deck replacement, the Bridge Authority says.

A 17.2% drop in Mackinac Bridge traffic in September, compared to last year, is the most recent figure released in a year that shows a traffic decline every month and a decrease in every type of traffic, including commercial trucks.

The September drop was the biggest in years, but not the biggest drop ever. In August 1979, a dip of 20.2% was recorded, compared to August 1978.

Hundreds of thousands of vehicles cross the bridge each month, ranging from roughly 200,000 in the slowest winter months to more than a half-million in mid-summer. Passenger cars and pickups, commercial tractor-trailers carrying U.P. lumber and other goods crossing the state, and campers and RVs are among vehicles that rely on the bridge between Michigan's upper and lower peninsulas.

This year to date for all traffic categories, August traffic at the bridge was down 3.8%, July down 12.6%, June down 11.2%, May down 6.6%, April down 9.9%, March down 2.5%, February down 4.7%, and January down 9%. The September numbers were slightly skewed because most of the busy Labor Day weekend fell in August this year, pointed out Bob Sweeney, executive secretary of the Mackinac Bridge Authority (MBA). Partly for that reason, August was one of the better traffic months.

Looking at traffic by category, averaged over the year, commercial truck traffic is down 3.5% through October and passenger traffic is down 5.2%.

A 19.5% drop in commuter traffic is the result of cutting out bridge tokens and replacing them with debit cards, said Mr. Sweeney.

"Drivers can't divide up the commuter card like they divided up the tokens," he said. Tokens were sold until 2007 at reduced rates to commuters, but there was no way to keep them from being given to non-commuters. The MBA ended their use to eliminate abuses of the commuter discount.

A review of the bridge traffic separated into commercial, noncommercial, commuter, and recreational categories reveals almost all negative numbers, with only a handful of slight increases shown in any category during the first eight months of 2008. The year's increases make up a short list, as follows: Commercial truck traffic was up 1.2% in February, up 3.3% in April, and up 0.6% in July. In February, in the non-commercial category, passenger cars and pickups showed a 1% increase, in March a 2.3% increase, and in August a 2.4% increase.

Does this year's toll hike

impact the traffic decline?

It was one year ago, in November 2007, that toll increases were proposed for the bridge, from $2.50 to $3 for a passenger car and from $1.50 to $1.60 for commuters. They were put in place March 1. Does the toll hike have any impact on this year's declining traffic?

Mr. Sweeney is careful to neither confirm nor deny whether he thinks this year's higher prices have impacted the number of vehicle crossings, but he does point out that crossings have been affected by a national and state transportation crisis. People are driving less, he pointed out, some 65 billion fewer miles nationally in the past couple of years, as gas prices have soared and the economy has weakened.

The MBA also does not take a position on whether the price hikes have impacted traffic, Mr. Sweeney said, because it is more concerned that predictions are for continued traffic decreases, at least through 2010, even as preservation needs increase on the aging bridge.

"The Authority's main concern is with preserving the bridge and how the nationwide trends impact our 20-year plan," Mr. Sweeney said. "We are looking at how we can save money at the bridge, by cutting positions, reducing expenses, and energy savings. Also, I'm hopeful that eventually we may start to capture some outside funding, including Homeland Security grants, or money from the Federal Highway Administration," which the authority will apply for in February 2009, but he is less hopeful of this avenue now because "their revenues are down significantly because of the reduction in gas tax revenue."

With the 2008 price increase, revenues at the bridge are up 7.3% for the year, through September, and operation cuts will help save more money for the repairs.

Four jobs were cut at the bridge in 2008, and two workers retiring in 2009 will not be replaced. Five or six years ago, which Mr. Sweeney called peak staffing levels, the bridge employed 110 seasonal and full time workers, a number now down to 100. The maintenance department is growing because of increased demand for repairs, while the number of office workers and toll collectors is declining. Employee insurance costs have been reduced by increasing deductibles, travel and training expenses have been cut, and board members, who are unpaid appointees, no longer request reimbursement for travel to meetings, Mr. Sweeney pointed out.

Declining Traffic

Is a 10-year Trend

Traffic has been declining at the bridge for a decade.

Peak traffic years were 1998 and 1999, and numbers have fallen roughly 25% since then.

Passenger vehicle crossings have dropped even more, 38%, since 1998. Vehicles towing trailers are down 20%, and commercial trucks and buses are down 14.6% over the past decade.

In 2007, bridge traffic was 1.9% lower than in 2006.

This year, traffic counts show travel did decline in the state.

On I-75, traffic counts have fallen off somewhat this year, compared to last, although the 2008 numbers have not all been tabulated yet, said Matt Radulski of the Michigan Department of Transportation. He tracks traffic with a permanent traffic counter at Vanderbilt, north of Gaylord, and reported a drop of roughly 1,000 cars a day, taking into account both northbound and southbound traffic. In June 2007, 15,410 cars were recorded there daily, with 14,853 recorded daily in June 2008, a drop of 3.6%. In July, the daily vehicle count at Vanderbilt was 20,801 last year, and 19,784 this year, about a 5% decrease.

Next Decision Expected:

Who Qualifies for

a Discount?

Along with the March 1 toll increases, a seven-year plan was implemented a year ago that will jump tolls in one-year increments to 2014, during which time automobile tolls will be raised 50¢ every two years to $4.50 in 2014 and commuter tolls will climb 10¢ every year to $2.20.

In August of this year, the authority doubled the amount that drivers must deposit on a commuter card, to $80.

The next decision to be made by the Bridge Authority, one that's been a year in the making and is expected next month, is to define who qualifies for the commuter discount.