This winter is more harsh for the area deer herd than any in the past decade, according to snow accumulation data from the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Snow amounts measured in five local areas are far above average this year.

"We expect to lose deer at this point, but the question is how many," said Terry Minzey, DNR Eastern Upper Peninsula (EUP) wildlife supervisor Tuesday, March 3. "I think the next six weeks will tell us how many we will actually lose."

The longstanding Winter Severity Index (WSI), used by the DNR since 1968, is no longer considered a good indicator of the herd's mortality, Mr. Minzey said, and for the past five years, he has been using a different method to determine deer mortality in the EUP.

The WSI has three components, air chill, snow depth, and snow compaction.

"After 30 years, we tried to look at the WSI's predictive ability, and found it didn't have any," said Mr. Minzey. "There was no strong relationship between the WSI and deer mortality."

He found, however, a strong relationship between the level of buck harvest and deer population in the the EUP and the area's average snow accumulation, a measuring method similarly used in Minnesota.

Working with the DNR offices at Sault Ste. Marie, Newberry, and Shingleton, he has established measuring stations in the EUP that take total snow accumulation each week between November 1 through May 1, providing Mr. Minzey with data that will support his method of determining deer mortality against the herd's reproduction rate. Measuring stations are in Rudyard, Pickford, Naubinway, Lakefield, near Newberry, and Naomikong, east of Tahquamenon Bay.

With a few more years of data, Mr. Minzey will be able to better determine each station's "trigger point," a point where the DNR can accurately determine that buck harvest will be lower in the next hunting season, and maybe even by how much.

"We will be able to determine if there is enough deer mortality to offset the number of births," he said.

This year's total measurements are higher in each area than during the 1995-96 winter, a year in which the DNR saw a high rate of die-offs across the Upper Peninsula.

The local deer herd still has not recovered from a 50% drop in numbers from that winter, Mr. Minzey said.

A big difference between this winter and the last five, he noted, is that the EUP has seen a deeper snowpack earlier this year, putting stress on the deer earlier and longer.

"We got snow early and it has stayed throughout the winter," he said.

The following is a list of total and long-term snow accumulation measurements in the EUP and current and average snowpack measurements in each station (as of Friday, March 7):

Last year, the number of fawns, yearlings, and pregnant does dropped, owing to cold temperatures, thick snow that makes it harder for deer to reach food, which also slows the animals down and increases the chance of predation. Owing to an even harsher winter this year and studying the data he's seen so far with snow accumulation, Mr. Minzey's prediction that the U.P. would see a drop in buck harvest between 10% to 15% will likely fall on the higher side of the prediction.

"There are a lot of indicators that say our deer herd will be down at least 15% from 2007," said Mr. Minzey. "From Escanaba on east, the herd has been hit hard, but the southwest corner of the U.P. is not as bad."

The projected deer population for the U.P. in 2008 was 323,600, down from the 358,400 projected in 2007. That number is likely to fall even further owing to a worse winter this year, said Mr. Minzey.

Mr. Minzey pointed out the 2000-01, 2004-05, and this year's winters have been hardest on the deer herd.

"For hunters, they can anticipate yet another reduction in deer next hunting season," he said.

This year's spikehorn harvest numbers may be skewed in comparison with last year's because the hunting regulations changed this year.

"Generally, what we try to do is look at buck harvest numbers to see how much bucks are down," said Mr. Minzey, "but with the three-point regulation new this year, we can't figure out how that will impact the numbers because hunters are letting spike deer go now."

To aid the herd through the harshest part of the year, the DNR directs all timber sales within deer yards to happen during the winter, providing browse when loggers knock down trees and debris.

Because of concerns of the spread of Chronic Wasting Disease, the DNR does not allow supplemental feeding except in the Lake Superior watershed area, which ranges from 160 miles inland near Wabakimi Provincial Park, north of Thunder Bay, Ontario, to Munising.

The Tahquamenon Sportsmen's Club in Newberry has been part of a deer feeding program for 20 years, with the last 10 years under a DNR permit program that regulates how, where, and what kind of feed can be distributed.

"Without supplemental feeding, we wouldn't have a deer herd here," said Don Canfield, the club's treasurer and manager of its deer feed program.

The club has 200 members and several voluntarily visit up to 10 feeding sites daily, from the beginning of January until April, to replenish food supplies daily.

"The yards that used to be here no longer exist because the trees have been cut down," said Mr. Canfield. "Even with our feeding program, we are going to lose deer this year because it's been one hell of a hard winter."