Conflicting reports on this summer's tourism outlook by two travel experts indicate a 6% gap in predictions of how the industry will fare across the state. One report forecasts up to a 4% dip and one anticipates a 2% increase, although both agree the Upper Peninsula will continue to struggle to draw visitors.

Dr. Donald Holecek of Michigan State University told The St. Ignace News Thursday, April 9, his estimated 3% to 4% decline in tourism across the state is optimistic. More stable gas prices, he said, and the fact that tourism did not fall as much as expected last year indicate there is some resilience in the tourism market. His forecast is based on a weak economy, transportation data, and historic trends.

He also estimates tourism in the Upper Peninsula will fall by about 5% this year.

"The lower gas prices will help," he said, "and I think that will be particularly important to the Upper Peninsula, given the perception that the U.P. is so far away" from population centers.

Factors playing a positive role in travel could include unemployment, or forced leisure, as people have more available time to travel. Under the current economic climate, said Dr. Holecek, Michigan sites may fare better than some other destinations, as state travel is not widely considered a luxury product. Consumers are not buying luxury goods, he said; they are buying discount right now. Stimulus money is likely to help, as less money is taken out of paychecks in federal taxes. People are likely to spend the $20-plus they will have in their paychecks than to use it to pay down credit card debt like they did when receiving one large stimulus check.

Other key factors in his forecast are the stock market, which is not as volatile as it has been, and the rapid decline in the housing market, which has slowed.

A 10-year decline in travel to the U.P. indicates tourism this summer will be soft. He does not expect to see another 9% fall in Mackinac Bridge traffic like last year, he said, rather about 5% is likely. For the first three months this year, traffic on the bridge is down 2.55%, about 15,000 crossings.

How that translates to business volume, he does not know. Last year, travel numbers were down around the state, although spending was up overall, which helped to soften the drop in tourism to about 1%. Lodging and room tax was down more than 2%, while restaurant visits were up approximately 4%.

The industry should consider offering incentives to get through difficult times, said Dr. Holecek. In some communities, airlines are discounting fares and lodging facilities are offering one night free to travelers staying three nights.

"That's kind of painful," he said, "but in terms of making it through this soft economy, selling a room and making fewer bucks on it as opposed to what you would normally make is better than having it idle."

Travel packages would help entice visitors to the U.P., he said. When people add up the price of activities separately, they often believe it will cost more.

"I think we had that last year with gas prices. People were seeing $4 a gallon, they were not seeing it would cost them 10% more to make a trip to Mackinac Island."

The Pure Michigan advertising campaign is a step in the right direction and will minimize the decline in tourism, said Dr. Holecek, although it won't be enough to offset it. Reversing trends, he said, takes a lot of effort, but as a national campaign, it will attract travelers from outside the state's traditional draw areas of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

Dave Lorenz of Travel Michigan, which is responsible for the Pure Michigan campaign, said he thinks the Michigan State University forecast is a little pessimistic. He is estimating a 2% increase in tourism.

Working in the state's favor, he said, are an improving economy, rising confidence in the economy, additional promotion of the state, and more discretionary time as a result of unemployment.

"I'm quite positive this is going to be a very good year, even with all of the concerns with the economy," he said. "I think that we're going to be happy by the end of the year. I just think we're going to hit one out of the ballpark this year. I think it's going to be a grand slam."

Tourism is an $18 billion industry in Michigan and supports about 200,000 jobs. In previous years, about 70% of tourism came from Michigan residents.

The Pure Michigan marketing campaign went national at the end of March. The state is spending $30 million to draw tourists from around the country to Michigan this year. It is the largest travel marketing budget in the state's history.

It is the first national tourism campaign Michigan has ever conducted. About $10 million will be spent on 5,500 cable television ads on 15 national networks. In New York City, a fourpanel Pure Michigan billboard will be on display in the middle of Times Square this summer. In Chicago, buses will advertise, "Your trip begins at michigan.org."

"It's just delicious," said Mr. Lorenz.

About $11 million will be spent on a regional campaign.

Less than two weeks after the national campaign began, while on a trip to New York City, Mr. Lorenz said industry representatives there were telling him they already had seen the ads and liked the campaign.

He said comments included, "Love your Pure Michigan commercials, never knew you had such a beautiful state, can't wait to get out there."

Traffic on the state's travel Web site rose 20% in two weeks once the national ads began running on television. In 2008, for the entire year, visits to the site rose by 30%. For the last two years, it has been the most visited state travel Web site in the country.

Some visiting the Web site include people in Dallas and New York. These visitors, said Mr. Lorenz, are people who are interested in golfing in the summer in a state that's not too hot and they are interested in visiting freshwater beaches.

"We have so much going for us," said Mr. Lorenz, "and most of us don't know it. The great thing is the rest of the country is going to find out."

With a weak national economy, he said, this is a time when many people in the industry are scaling back on their marketing. Travel Michigan, he said, believes it is the perfect opportunity for them when others are out of the market.

"We're gaining steam, promotionally speaking, and being noticed more so because of that," he said.

Lower gas prices coupled with the Pure Michigan campaign pushing outdoor adventure may help the U.P. this summer, said Mr. Lorenz, although the area will still be challenged by distance for travelers.

"The U.P., of course, the farthest away from all of the population areas, will continue to have the most difficult time bringing people up there," he said. "The U.P., like a lot of places in Michigan, people don't think badly of the area, they just don't think of it. It is one of the less promoted areas of the country."

Many Lower Peninsula communities partner with Travel Michigan to promote their area, he said, yet in the U.P., only Sault Ste. Marie and Mackinac Island is partnering financially with the agency, although several other areas, like the Les Cheneaux Islands and Curtis, are joining with Pure Michigan through the Great Waters campaign.

For 2010, Governor Jennifer Granholm is proposing to reduce the travel budget by $24.3 million to a total $5.7 million, similar to funding levels three years ago.

Legislators and those with tourism-related businesses such as hotel and restaurant owners are working together to try to find new ways to fund the industry, said Mr. Lorenz.

If the proposed budget cuts are approved, they could come at a time when the national economy starts to recover.

Dr. Holecek estimates Michigan could begin to see a slight improvement in tourism in 2010 and an upward trend after that.

"If we make it through this year and look out [two or three] years, the indicators would be positive overall for a rebound, a very positive rebound," he said. "If the economy holds up past that, I think we will see a profitable time for tourism, even up in the U.P."